To win or not to win

Times up

2009-07-05T07:48:00.000-07:00

I have decided to finish the blog from to day.
It has been interfering with work and also my own betting.
When I started I thought I would just post what I was betting on but looking back my betting
patterns have changed , I am now betting more frequently than I used to and not just when I had spare time, there is also an added pressure if you think someone else is putting money on.
I have more respect for winning tipsters now as I now know how hard it is to get in front.
Hopefully I will regain a bit of form now and pick up a few decent paydays.
Thanks to anyone who took the time to read . john

Saturday

2009-07-04T05:08:00.000-07:00

Trying the same bet for the third day running

2.20h - rosika 1 point win @10/3 stan james
750n - Il forno 2 points win @ 9/4 stan james

1/2 win double

Rosika should still keep improving and will be thereabouts
Il forno should appreciate the shorter trip and I think it should be the favourite here.

Better prices are available but for double purposes stan james seemed best.

post later

2009-07-04T01:27:00.001-07:00

Have to work this morning will post before racing

Friday

2009-07-03T00:19:00.000-07:00

Trying the same bet as yesterday

5.05 san - strathcal - 2 points win
2.30 don- battle planner - 1 point win

1/2 point win double

Thursday

2009-07-02T00:22:00.000-07:00

Just a quick post

3.30 iasia - 1 point win
9.0 eastern aria - 2 points win

1/2 win double

Odds not available yet ,take best odds at best odds bookies

wednesday

2009-07-01T00:23:00.000-07:00

An odds on lay for today

2.30 catt - contact caterer lay 1 point

currently 10-11 ish this is the form horse on whats known but there are a couple who I expect to improve and also a couple of interesting newcomers including jutland who I considered backing a very nicely bred horse from a good stable.
This should not be odds on in my opinion.

Monday

2009-06-29T00:21:00.000-07:00

A small bet today

3.30 wolv - horsley warrior 1/2 point win

No prices as yet but 14.5 on betfair.
This horse ran a howler last time and there must have been something amiss.
If back to its previous form it would have a fair chance in this off a decent mark.

Weekly update 28-6

2009-06-28T12:19:00.000-07:00

well heres the weekly update

Towinornottowin
-----------------
mon -2
thurs +4.5
fri -1
sat -2.24
sun -1

Total - 1.74
totaltodate +2.06

Toloseornottolose
------------------
tues +0.95
sat +0.95

Total on week +1.80
total to date +1.80

Well not a great week on the backing front with just the 1 winner and a place double.
The laying side had a great start with the two lays both failing to make the frame at ev and 5/2
They probably both lost because i'm not yet laying them, when I start just watch them win.

sunday

2009-06-28T03:23:00.000-07:00

Just a small e/w double today

2.0 sal - fire and stone @ 6/1 ppower best odds
445 sal- souter point @ 3/1 ppower

1/2 e/w double

fire and stone has sound place claims with state fair taken out and 6/1 seems good value ,
there is an odds on shot who may be a bit too short at 4-5.
Souter point is the clear form horse on known form and should at least place.
The purpose of this bet is to try and land a nice touch while playing it fairly safe with the place double which would give us a small profit.

Saturday

2009-06-27T04:34:00.000-07:00

Apologies first , I meant to post this morning saying I would update at noon but events at work
put me off and I forgot to post.

Been busy looking and have a few tips today

2.05 ancien regime 1 point win bet 365
6.50 pyrus time 2 points win

1/2 point e/w double
-----------------------------------------------------------
230 win - mr david 1 point lay at under 2-1

ancein regime is currently 3-1 @ bet365 12.39pm and only 9-4 with others inc ladbrokes
It last run at course distance and ground had him in front of diabolical nand a repeat of that would win this but there is a fitness worry.
pyrus time ticks all the boxes even though he still a maiden after so long but it looks a two horse race and I much prefer this one.

mr david is unraced but is currenlt around 7-4 for its debut , there are a couple who made decent debuts and should improve and I cant see why hes so short and hes worth laying at
under 2-1, i think he may start a bit bigger.

friday

2009-06-25T15:17:00.000-07:00

Dont have price yet but a small bet on

pycian 4.0 doncaster - 1 point win

looks the call in this race , a decent debut winner and with improvement expected and also a more suitable trip today he can make it a winning double.

thursday 25.6

2009-06-25T00:44:00.000-07:00

3.0 new -kaptain kirkup - 2 points win @5-2 bet365best odds

This looks a nice horse although a fairly competitive race 5-2 seems a decent price.

Tuesday 19th

2009-06-24T03:29:00.000-07:00

First lay selections today , has a fair chance but likely to be very poor value and plenty to oppose him

To lose
7.20 athwaab lay 1 point at around 6-4

monday evening

2009-06-22T08:48:00.000-07:00

6.20 chep - true red - 2points win @3-1 bet365

Monday

2009-06-22T03:49:00.001-07:00

update at 5.00pm

Weekly update 21-06-09

2009-06-21T11:07:00.000-07:00

Well a truly awful week in respect of returns but the racing was entertaining.
I have decided to review the way the selections are given out, reading noseaheads blog today
was like deja vu for me , I have been trying to hard to find winners when I should have been more selective.
When looking for decent bets I often start with looking for poor value favourites to oppose.
I have decided from now that if my selection is not the clear choice against these weak favourites
that I will either leave alone or advise a lay on the unfancied horse.
For example I put up two selections today where I thought the favourite was to short and they both got beat but I did not profit on the day.
So alongside towinornottowin there will be toloseornottolose, I will keep these seperate for account purposes.
Initially I will not be laying these as its more of a trial run at the moment the price I settle the lays on will be
successful lays less 5%commision
unsuccessful lays at 5% on the starting price to allow for the slightly better exchange odds.
Towinornottowinbets will be more selective and less speculative than before and focus on horses that I think have a good chance at a decent price.
The daily posts will be brief and on days when there are no selections there will be no posts.
If there are selections they will be posted by 11.30 unless stated on the blog.

back to this week
monday -1
tuesday -5
wednesday -4
thursday -1
friday -3.5
sat -3
sunday -1 (winning selection did not meet price required)

Total for week - 18.5 points ( oh gosh)
Total to date +3.8 points

sunday

2009-06-21T02:24:00.000-07:00

Well i'm glad ascots over , the bank has taken a battering
today pontefract is the only card for me

Drumfire is a good bet to be beaten in the 3.40 today ,the breeding says he wont stay and the fact that hes not been tried at a mile and a half after so many races confirms it in my opinion, he has good form and may win in a tactical battle but hes not a 6-4 chance for me.
with a couple of the other fancies out it may be worth taking a chance with

Zaheen 1point win @10-1 betfred.

This probably has the best form in the race if you exclude his last two runs which i think you can.
last time he went over 10 furlongs which is too sharp for him and the previous time he ran he wore blinkers for the 1st time.
Obviously it has problems but 10-1 seems value as there are not many others in with a shout.

Another possible is shemoli in the 4.40 Tthe fav is way to short as others have chances . It may be a choker but the form is decent and if it reaches 5-1 it will be worth a point . it will only be recorded on that basis.

Ascot day 4

2009-06-20T02:01:00.000-07:00

Having a dreadful week thus far some of my selections have put in decent performances and nothing to show for it.
Today I like (so you might be better laying them)

2.30 shakepearean 1 point win
345 kings apostle 1 point win
1/2 e/w double with above

4.25 prohibit and exclamation 1/2 point win each

shakespearean I like and I think he will be in the places today and hopefully win.
kings apostle is a decent sprinter and the refitting of the visor which helped him win before
can help him settle there are some good foreign horses again but surely we should win one sprint this week.
In the wokingham I have gone for one on each side of the draw they both have poor recent form
but if they ran as they can we may land a nice price.

I have not bet yet just but will get the best odds available at best odds.
the wokingham selections may be better on betfair.

Ascot day 3

2009-06-19T01:39:00.000-07:00

River captain ran a great race but ultimately got beat in a bunch finish.
I am happy with my selections so far but not getting that bit of luck at the moment.
Today i like

2.30 ascot-Above limits 1/2 point win @ 59/1 betfair
3.05 ascot -Debussy 1 point win @10-1 bet 365
2.10 redcar- Highcliffe breeze 2 points win 5/1 at the moment bet 365 but waiting for others to price up.

Above limits is a huge price to win what might be a more open race than the betting is making out , there are plenty with chances and I can see no reason why this is not around 14-1 for this race. The price is simply to big , I have gone for a win because the betfair price is 20 points above the best bookies price.

Debussy is another who is too big today , black bear island is a poor price and is worse of with debussy on the derby form and has to give him weight, the other runners seem a moderate bunch so i'm hopeful for a decent win here.
The best of the day goes in the seller at redcar and a big run is expected , just waiting on the prices but will record at price I take.

handicapping

2009-06-17T15:44:00.000-07:00

not a lot for me to go at as some short prices and a long distance race today which are not my cup of tea. monsueir chevalier looks to have a great chance but watch the yank if you betting big.
The last is a dante rematch and no value seems present.

so today I am trying one in the h/cap

4.20 rivercaptain 1 point win

obviously a very open race but this should run its race and at around 14-1 looks fair value.

cannot believe this

2009-06-17T09:02:00.000-07:00

What is going on
for the second day running I have picked the best of the home crop for my best bet of the day
only to be beaten by an aussie and a yank.
Will have to avoid races with them in now because you just cant judge how good they are and how thre travelling is effecting them , ishould be sitting near 20 point up and i'm losing.
Also wonder if our jocks are up to the quality of the yanks.
rant over. john

Ascot day 2

2009-06-16T23:53:00.000-07:00

Yesterday left a bitter taste in the mouth , when weighing up the big sprint it was mainly on the basis of the known british and french and irish form , I figured that although the aussies have a good record it is still hard to win when you travel half the world.Not so it seems. I picked right and I am happy about that but dont you hate the aussies!
I still enjoyed the racing and canford cliff especially .
Today I like
3.05 evas request @ 8-1 bet365 1 point win
3.45 virtual @12-1 bet365 1 point win
4.55 misheer @ 10-1 bet 365 2 points win

These are against some strong horses today but are decent value as they all have sound chances,
hopefully the favs had their day yesterday.

Ascot day 1

2009-06-15T15:10:00.001-07:00

Well its here at last the best meeting of the year on the flat
I have spent a good while going through the non handicaps and have picked a selection
in each race , I treat this meeting as an indulgence and sometimes let my heart rule my head
so its up to you to make up your own mind.

3.05 Fleeting spirit -3 points win
3.45 evasive -1 point win
4.20 canford hills ( to short to bet just enjoy)
5.30 desert auction - 1 point win

The main bet is fleeting spirit and its the 1st 3 pointer I have given , it has a tremendous chance if it has retained its ability.
Evasive ran well 1st time up in the guineas and could well improve to give the favourite ,who is to short for me a serious run for its money.
Desert auction who I opposed last time had no kind of race and at the odds available it could represent decent value.
I have not put up prices yet as it is best to see the offers tomorrow , the bet3635 4/1 offer for tv races is tempting if their prices are in line with the best on offer.
I'll post my returns at the prices I take this will have to be taken on trust.john

Monday

2009-06-15T08:04:00.001-07:00

Just a small e/w stab in the dark tonight.
The 7.0 at windor is a strange race with a 4-7 favourite in footstepsofspring this is only 4-7 due
to the fact that its trained by r.hannon who is in superb form at the moment this horse looks like a horse who doesent like putting its head in front it is easily the form horse but sometimes
its worth opposing these sorts and because its 4-7 its pushing the other horses out in the betting.
There are 3 places and the fav will occupy one of them so there are 2 place or even a win chance to be found with the rest of the field.
Out of unraced you could pick almuntaser and glass of red .
And of the raced horses split the pot comes into it.
On its debut it got hampered and did not handle the track but it was there for most of the race it finished 6th in the race the 4th won next time out and the winner is a decent horse, that was 6f and today its 5f.
If it gets a better run today the 50-1 on offer could look ridiculous.So its on this basis that its my selection .
It could easily run last as well as 1st but is worth this small investment.

7.0 windsor - split the pot - 50-1 stan james 1/2 point e/w

Weekly update 15-06-09

2009-06-15T07:51:00.000-07:00

A bit late but heres how the week went

mon -1
tue 0
wed -2
thur -2
fri 0
sat +5.8
sun -1

Total for the week -0.2 point

Total to date +21.58

A bit dissapointed not to be recording a profit but the r4 was bigger than expected on the 12-1
winner other dissapointments were not getting my second leg of a double to place at least and not doing an e/w on cryalot boy who went of 14-1 which is now my minimum e/w price.
Thats the way it goes you take the highs with the lows.

The lowest point for me in the week was getting home late on friday and phoning slh for his selections just as the 1st leg was running so i missed out on a win and a win double given by him.
I consoled myself a bit by backing his 2nd selection as a win bet but it cost me dear on the night.
Royal ascot to look forward to this week and I will spend a bit longer each evening trying to sort out a couple of winners. john

maybe later

2009-06-15T00:28:00.001-07:00

Bit busy for update and selections in the daytime today so will post sometime around 5.00ish

Sunday

2009-06-14T01:40:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays selections gave a loser and a welcome winner at 12-1 sadly though my 12-1 was subject to a whopping 35p r4.
The withdrawn horse must have been shorter on bet365 in the morning.
The race worked out perfect for me as I had it between the 1st two and only picked the winner due to the price. Funnily enough though they both went of at the 6-1 forecast in the post so it was the bookies who picked it for me with their wayward early price.
Today theres a small interest in

3.05 salis - Good for her - 1 point win @ 15-2 stan james

I think this has a fair chance today and am happy with the price given that its best odds,
but I would'nt want to take to much shorter on it as theres lots of chances in the race.

Saturday

2009-06-13T01:01:00.001-07:00

Yestersdays selection was withdrawn at the start as it would not go in.
The stall handlers were poor in my opinion but no loss incurred.
Today i like

4.35 classically - 1 point win @13-2 bet365
455 mutawarath - 1 point win @ 12-1 bet365
.
1/2 point e/wdouble

Classically ran near last , last time out but that was a very competitive race for a load of money
and nowback down to earth could prove big at 13-2 without needing to improve much.
The 4.55 I have to be honest and admit I spent ages trying to split mutawarath and french applause and was not going to bet , but when the prices came in the difference of 11-2 and 12-1
made up my mind.
I would have thought about 6-1 each like the post forecast says so its huge value at 12-1 ,it ran into trouble last time and should give a run for your money.

evening update

2009-06-12T10:52:00.000-07:00

sorry its quite late
Tonights selection is

8.0 good leceile 2 points win @4-1 w-hill (bog)

This should put in a bold performance tonight.

fri night

2009-06-11T14:57:00.000-07:00

Todays selections provided a nr and 2 losers , cryalotboy ran a great race at 14-1 to finish 2nd
but the odds on jolly was too good.
Will post between 5-7 tomorrow as I may have a later interest.

Interesting day

2009-06-10T15:00:00.000-07:00

Todays 1st selection won very well at a decent sp seeing as his main rival was a nr
the 2nd was having problems at the start and finished 4th.
I think I shall be careful when backing blinkered horses in future , they wear them to stop them getting edgy and focus on the race which means they are probably not trustworthy unless they are serial blinker wearers and have done well with them.

Thursday has quite a few interesting runners , I like

1.35 diamond johnny - f/c @ 10-1
3.50 chanrossa - f/c @ 7-1
9.20 cryalotboy - f/c @ 12-1

all 1 point win singles

diamond johnny ran well on his debut and should improve again , the favourte is strong and there are some decent looking newcomers but 10-1 would surely be a value bet.
Chanrossa is capable of winning and may get his chance today.
Cryalotboy is capable of much better than his recent efforts and if finding some form
12-1 would be very big.

I have not put up multiple bets today as theres a lot of ifs and buts but I may do a very small
trixie just in case but I wont include for blog purposes. Once again it will have to be sp as i;m of early in the morning.john

E/W DOUBLE

2009-06-10T00:21:00.000-07:00

A little e/w double for today

2.40 jeanie johnston forecast 7/2
6.50 i'malwayalright forecast 2/1

1 point e/w double

Both seem to have a good chance and the place part of the double would cover stake , best to use best odds bookies when they have priced up.
I'm working so will have to use s.p today.

Nothing doing

2009-06-08T23:35:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays selection did not do very well so a 1 point loss on the day.
Today there really is nothing interest.
See you tomorrow

Evening update

2009-06-08T09:40:00.000-07:00

Just a small interest for this evening

6.30 wind - Jessica haylar 1/2 point e/w @ 14-1 stan james

this is just speculative but its very nicely bred with a good trainer jockey combo
14-1 seems good e/w value in a race with some that dont look as well bred.

Monday evening maybe!

2009-06-07T12:27:00.001-07:00

Nothing in the day for monday but there are a couple of interesting runners at windor in the evening .
I will update after 5.00 monday. john

Weekly update 07-06-09

2009-06-07T12:11:00.000-07:00

Not much for the update, I will include the 2 point loss from the 26th may.
Todays selections were poor but thats the way it goes sometimes.
I did make another last minute bet on talimos in the 4.0 brighton as I thought the favourite looked way to short to trust , I figured an e/w bet was a fairly safe option as only talimos and the fav had the form.Talimos won by 10 lengths at 5-1 because something went amis with the fav.
I did not have time to put it on the blog and I will not be recording it in my figures.
Sometimes I do make later decisions to bet because things change during the day, talimos who I thought would go off at 3-1 was 5-1 at the start and I thought it was then value.
It would be unfair and too hard to post with minutes to spare.

26 may -2 points
Sat -0.5 point
sunday - 2 points

Total since last update -4.5 points
Total to date +21.78 points

sunday

2009-06-07T03:01:00.001-07:00

Yesterday's selections both finished 2nd and thanks to the bookies giving 1/4 odss a place at the big meeting the day only ended with a 1/2 point loss.
Walking on the moon looked to have won the race only for colonol maddox to finish like a train and take the spoils.
My derby thoughts were nearly spot on with fame and glory running as I expected it was just that he seems to have met a superstar in sea the stars who I doubted would have stayed.
It never came to staying as he was in a different league to these and would have won if it were 2 miles.
Today is poor but I am having a win double on

210south - regardless 11/10
310 south - aureate 10/11

2points win double with best odds bookies

The prices are short but at around 3-1 for the double I think its worth the bet as they both
have outstanding chances in thier respective races.
Be back lated with an update.

Walk on the moon and ignore the stars

2009-06-06T00:57:00.000-07:00

Back from my holiday now and refreshed for action.
Sorry I put up true loves kiss late before I went , I did not see the race and it finished 4th but was then thrown out for not weighing in , it ran a similar race to its debut and I will be keeping an eye on this horse it has a win in it.
Derby day today and a very strange race it may be , with apo brien saddling half of the field
I think it would be plain stupid to back any other runner. All his jocks will have their instructions murtagh on rip van winkle is a red herring in my opinion and his outsiders will ensure a good pace , I think this will set up the race for fame and glory who will outstay the lot of them and take the prize.
The other horse for today is walkingonthemoon in the 1.55 I think this is great value at 10-1
and should be there abouts.

1.55 epsom - walking on the moon ...10-1 bet365 - 1 point win

3.45 epsom- fame and glory............... 4-1 bet 365 - 2 points win

1/2 point e/w double , total investment 4 points

True loves kiss

2009-05-26T00:36:00.000-07:00

Hi , I was not going to give anything this week as I am on holiday from tomorrow but I noticed a horse running that I highlighted as one tp back next time out.

2.10R - true loves kiss 2 points win @ around 8-1

This horse took a long time to get into things on its debut but when it did it really made up ground and was then eased , I'm sure it would have won that day had it not been for its inexperience , the race was only moderate but I think it will improve today and should be thereabouts.
From now on I am going to play mainly win only on singles unless there 14-1 or bigger, to try
and keep stakes down. I'll keep the e/w doubles.
Sorry if you miss this because I said I would not post. john.

Weekly update 24th May

2009-05-24T14:46:00.000-07:00

Not a good week for me and it ends today with a badly hurt wrist ,may have to go to a and e to get it checked out.
Hard to type with one hand so i'll be brief , a loss of
-11.80points this week
Running total +25.78

nothing for monday so i think i will leave it for the next two weeks as i am on holiday for 10 days from wednesday and i'll resume the blog for derby day . good luck john

summers day

2009-05-24T01:25:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays double turned out to be a single as lesson in humility was a nr. So a profit of 2.2 point on the day.
Today I like
3.30 new - Takaatuf @ 4-1
4.40 - summer target @ sp 1 point win each. 1/2 point e/w double

No prices yet for summers target but its showing at 6-1 on betfair at the moment 9.30am.
summers target has decent form at 7f on the turf , he came last on on his previous start but that was at 6f on the aw. I will excuse that and hope that his new trainer has him fit. 6-1 looks decent.
Takaatuf looks a nice horse and is well handicapped, I think he'll go well today.
Only 7 runners for takaatuf race but I think the e/w double chance is very good.

win double

2009-05-22T14:26:00.000-07:00

todays selection ran 4th beaten a long way .
Not a great week thus far and saturdays racing looks to offer little in the way of value.
I have selected a win double for saturday
2.35h - lesson in humilty
4.0 n- step in time 2 point win double

Lesson in humility has everything going for it today and will attract plenty of support so be wary of taking too short a price.
Step in time made my shortlist from its previous race and should be to the fore.

Fridays selections

2009-05-22T00:43:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays selection driftred severly in the betting to 20-1 which indicated something amis.
It gave us a run even though it eventually came nearer last than 1st.

I think todays selection has as good a chance as the favourite who is around 7/4 ish.
The trip looks to suit and if fit she should put up a goood show.

2.45 newc - Kaloni 2 points win @ around 6-1

shocking day

2009-05-20T15:00:00.000-07:00

Todays selections ran like cart horse's , I cant remember backing two such fancied horses
and not getting at least a place for ages.
So a poor start to the week i'll count my ante post derby bet as a loser now.
I am going on holiday early next week so wont have to much time for betting as I have to get business affairs sorted.
I will just be posting my selections the previous evening and will have to take the s.p for them

Thursday 5.10 good - phoenix enforcer 1 point e/w

If this starts at the forecast 10-1 i think we will be getting decent value , fair form and
distance should suit. john

Derby hopeful

2009-05-20T01:10:00.000-07:00

The last two days have been losing days , the selections ran ok but were all big odds.
So a 2 point loss on the week so far.
Today I am going for

2.0 ling talimos @2-1
3.25 good - chock a block @3-1

2 points win each and 1/2 point win double (both bet 365)

The 3.25 is a good race but I am think chock a block might be a decent horse and is entered in
the derby therefore I have also had

chock a block derby 1/2 point win @1201-1 betfair (best with bookies is 50-1)

Its obviously a stab in the dark but a good performance today would see him come into the reckoning for the classic and I would be annoyed if I did not have a small punt and then saw him coming into say 16-1 for epsom.
Talimos looks promising in the 2.0 and I think he will have the measure of akmal who is also 2-1.

Tuesday 19th

2009-05-18T14:04:00.000-07:00

Nothing much doing for tuesday there is a newcomer I may bet on

2.20m Commance raider 1/2 point win if available @ 10-1 of better
It looks interesting and could put a decent performance 1st time but I would want that price so will only bet and record if thats available.
I will be watching the 6.10l with interest but unlikely to bet, I watched state fair on its debut
it bolted at the start got into all sorts of trouble and still managed 5th without being pressed to hard it would have been a bet for me but tawaabb looks like a decent sort and Iwould not oppose.

Monday evening update

2009-05-18T08:09:00.000-07:00

I have picked two outsiders for tonight they are both in weak races and have better chances than the odds quoted for them and its this reason that i'm betting.

7.10 wind - castano @16-1 bet365
7.40 wolv - Sermons mount 33-1 stan james

1/2 point win each 1/4 point e/w double (castano 14-1 stan james for the double)
Total investment 1.5 points

Its highly speculative but they say you have to speculate to accumulate.

Monday evening maybe!

2009-05-17T13:58:00.000-07:00

Mondays racing looks s***** to be blunt but have a couple of outsiders on my shortlist
will wait for prices and going reports before deciding.
Will update again after 5.00pm. john

Weekly update 17th May

2009-05-17T11:36:00.000-07:00

Well a good weekend makes it a profitable week.
It has been a bit frustrating at times as I think I picked well but was just missing out.
Mon.... (5.00)
Tues....(1.50)
Wed....(3.00)
Thur....+2.50
Fri....(.50)
Sat(1.00)
Sun....+18.86

Total profit for week........ .....+10.36

Total profit to date
Since 20th april 2009 ...........+37.58

So its been just about a month since I started this blog and I am very pleased to be sitting at a profit of 37.58 points, but its the long term view which is most important.
I have set myself the goal that all the so called professional tipsters seem to go by which is 100 points profit per year and I am well on my way to it but remember long losing runs happen.
If you look at the premium betting site blueskyracing they set their goal at 100 points a year and for two years they acheived this , but there nearly at their year end and are sitting on 3 points profit for the year! They only charge 2 grand a year!

"2 out of 3 aint bad."

2009-05-17T09:54:00.000-07:00

I dont know who said that but I made a nice profit today with the selections given.
I am slightly dissapointed because I thought that mary helen was going to get up but faded in to forth.
I thought all three would improve and they all did.
Added to a nice win yesterday from slh it makes it a very good weekend for me.
Will be back later with the weekly update

Improvers?

2009-05-17T02:41:00.000-07:00

Going for three selections today who have each had only one race but looking at the races I think each of them will improve enough to have good chances today.
Will be putting singles on each but will also play a small e/w multibet as I think all should be in contention.

Ripon
2.10 - Kylladdie 2 points win @ 7/2 stan james
2.40 - Mary helen 1 point win @ 9/1 stan james
4.40 - Lady luachmhar 2 points win @ 7/2 paddy power

3 x 1/2 point e/w doubles
1/4 point e/w treble

Total investment 8.5 points
( for the purpose of the multi bet lady lauchmhar is 3-1 as bet placed with stan james)

Busy day

2009-05-17T01:33:00.000-07:00

There are a few interesting selections for me today and I am waiting for more books to price up.
Yesterdays selection lost but according to the posts write up was booked for 3rd place when it broke down and then had to be put down.So a loss for all.
Just a small thankyou to steve lewis hamilton who supplied me with a 20-1 winner yesterday
to give me a lovely boost to my spending for my forthcoming holiday, any one who wants serious professional advice should join this guy it is not cheap but then again neither is a rolls royce.
Beback around 11.00 am

Not quite clicking

2009-05-16T01:09:00.000-07:00

Things are a bit frustrating at the moment with a couple of seconds ruining my doubles.
No excuses as the winners were deserving but just a modicum of luck would be handy.
Yesterday a winner and a second for a 1/2 point loss on the day , managed 5/4 on the winner but hoped it would return bigger.
Not much for me todays just a small e.w.

2.05 newbury tropical strait 1/2 point e/w at 10-1 Bet365

If ready first time out it should put in a good performance.
Seems to be drifting a little at the moment so best done on best odds guarantee
12s is available though .

Fridays selections

2009-05-14T14:25:00.000-07:00

Todays selection ran a creditable 3rd @16-1 and beat the so called talking horses , I wondered what ladbrokes knew to offer such a generous price of 14-1 and I now know the answer..............
A. p. o' brien was running 2 in the race.
I dont know what he feeds them but the other trainers should get a supply of it.
I took 14-1 without best odds and will record at this price and I was pleased to see ladbrokes giving a 1/4 odds on the race. So a profit of 2.5 on the day.

Off early again tomorrow so heres the fridays selections

1.50 new - Mijas player 2 points win each
6.20 ham - Corporal maddox 1 point win double

Only betfair to go on at the moment mijas player trading around 3-1 and corporal maddox at 6-5
(I would not want less than 6-5 corporal maddox)I will record at price's I take at around noon tomorrow.
These both look to have solid claims against newcomers . John.

14-1 Value

2009-05-13T15:16:00.000-07:00

Todays selections lost with dettori out for a walk in the park , holding up the horse and then was left with to much to do so he just coasted home. It finshed 6th which was flattering it was just running past beaten horses, Watch this next time out.This was not frankie at his best.
the second selection got outpaced early and had nothing to offer.
Posting now for thursday as I wont be around and the bet is

240york - Sans frontiers 1 point e/w @14-1 ladbrokes

This is surely to big at 14-1 , it has great form 2nd behind delegator on its reappearance will be suited by the trip and running against a field of talking horses which on close inspection have little form. Great price at 14-1 my only concern is that its the magic sign putting up the best price , what is it they know?

Early update wednesday

2009-05-13T03:40:00.000-07:00

Popped home for a break and checked out my selection for this evening on oddschecker.
Its starting do move in the market so I have placed my bet now just posting now
while one bookie has the original price.

7.10 bath - You've been mowed 1 point e/w @11-1 stan james

it was generally 10-1 and 12-1 earlier and is now as low as 8-1.
Stan james seem to be given good odds lately and may take over from my preferred bookie bet365 as they also offer best odds guaranteed.
The horse should go well in a claimer and put in on a low weight I would be disapointed if it
does not give a decent run and place at least.

Small investment

2009-05-12T14:53:00.000-07:00

Last nights bet returned 3.5 for a 5 stake so a loss on the bet of 1.5 .
My selections run well enough but were not the match the odds on selection in the 1st leg.

Off early in the morning so will post a small bet for the daytime now and maybe another for the evening after 5pm.
The 3.10 at york is highly competitive and you would need a screw loose to place a large bet in the race in my opinion.
If they run this race a dozen times there could be a dozen different winners and I believe that
Hatta fort could be one of those winners , therefore I think its odds of 20-1 are value on that basis.

3.10York Hatta fort 1/2 point e/w

Evening update

2009-05-12T09:33:00.000-07:00

Todays selection had a problem at the stalls and was withdrawn.
Tonight i'm going for

6.20 ling Bennelong @6-1
Zulu moon @ 14-1

8.20 ling Dark ranger @ 5-2
Primo dilettante @ 4-1

1 point win each 1/4 point perm double Total stake 5 points

Playing these different tonight trying a bit of dutching (backing 2 in a race)

One winner could give a profit and the double would be nice .
All prices quoted are with stan james at the moment.

Good luck john.

poppet to pop-in?

2009-05-12T01:16:00.000-07:00

Yesterday selections did not prevail with bond together getting troubled and then losing its whip, It took a walk in the market and probably would not have won anyway.
Gap princess got beat a neck but put up a game performance.

Today I have more interest in the evening cards than the daytime, and will post again after 5.00pm with the selections , i'm waiting to see how betting goes.
But I do have a small interest in the 2.30 at at beverley

Poppet's lovein 1/2 point e/w 2.30 bev @14-1

With an odds on fav who is pushing out the prices of the others 14-1 seems good value, for a nicely bred newcomer who could run a place or even stick its nose in front.

Jockeys Day

2009-05-11T02:32:00.000-07:00

I am going for 2 selections today mainly because they have useful claimers onboard who may just give them the edge.

240 wol - Bond together generally 5-1
350 red - Gap princess 15-8

2 points win each 1 win double

Bond together looks sure to go well , evans has 2 in this race and his son is on the one I think he fancies most, in recent races when he has had 2 in the race his son seems to come out on top.
I did want this 2 points e/w but a nr has reduced the field to 7.
Gap princess returned to seven furlongs on sat and died out pretty quickly but with the claim and a more tactical race I think he is worth the investment.

Weekly update 10th May

2009-05-10T10:07:00.000-07:00

Well its been a much better performance this week to follow a good ending to last week.
The selections given on this blog are now showing a very healthy profit and I hope to continue
this momentum in the future.
Monday a small profit of .2 points.
Tuesday a loss of (2) points.
Wednesday profits of 8 , 9 and 26.92 on the e/wdouble given a total of 43.92 points.
Thursday a loss of (1) point.
Fridays selection did not achieve the stated price so no bet.
Saturday a loss of (1) point.
Sunday no selection.

Total profit for week +40.12 points

Running total to date + 27.22

Quiet day

2009-05-10T03:41:00.001-07:00

No selection for today as theres no english flat racing.
Yesterdays selection ran below expectation and is probably not a great filly.
I'll be back later with the weekly update. John.

Typos

2009-05-09T05:57:00.000-07:00

I have been looking back at my posts and have noticed a lot of bad english and spelling mistakes.
I type them out very quickly and do not proof read before posting .
I will try to improve them from now on . John

Worth opposing

2009-05-09T02:20:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays selection was not a selection as it failed to get anywhere near the price I set myself
for it. It lost at odds on which was far to short and might have been a lay at that price but
laying is not for me.

Today is another difficult day and I am going to have my sole bet on an unraced 3yo.

Penlova - 725 warwick 1 point win @ 10-1 bet 365

The market leaders have not shown much form to date and penlova is very nicely bred
and would not have to be great to win this.
Obviously i'm taking a chance with the horse having no experience but 10-1 is a very good
price in such a poor race.
As there are only seven runners i'm putting a win bet on because if it runs well it will probably win and if it is unfit or green it will probably come nowhere.

The price is right

2009-05-08T00:25:00.001-07:00

Yesterdays selection lost but did not run taht badly considering it had been off so long.
Someone sarted putting on the money as its odds tumbled from 20 -1 down to 9-1, I'm sure it was'nt my bet that did it.

Today I like

ROCK OF LOVE 610H 2 points win if the price is right , the post says it will start at 11-4
but betfair is a fair bit shorter at the moment . The right price is key when betting and sometimes its better to pass than take a short price. I would be wanting 9-4 + and will only be
betting and recording as a bet if I can obtain this price.
Good luck

A lot of ifs

2009-05-07T11:02:00.000-07:00

Sorry so late , been working hard

Masterofthe house was beaten as I feared I checked ot nearly every horse against it apart from the winner as it was obriens 2nd string. Glad I did not bet I hate it when the big price 2nd string wins only the stable can predict them.
I have the outsideer of the field in the 8.10 windsor tonight , been of the track a long time
but would not need its best form to win such a poor handicap, as I say its only a longshot but
20-1 seems to big

810 Winsdor - Annambo 20-1 1/2 point e/w

The late show

2009-05-06T14:57:00.001-07:00

Struggling to find anything for thursday
Spent a good while trying to find something against masterofthehouse in the chester vase as I think it may get overturned , I looked at all others from different angles and I simply could not
justify any of them , so its best watched.
Have an idea of one selection in the evening and will update after 6pm on it.
John

Truly perfect

2009-05-06T11:03:00.000-07:00

What a great day today .
I had two bets which both won given me a profit of over 43 points on the day and putting the blog into profit for the first time.
J.murtagh rode a superb race on perfect truth making sure it was a true test of stamina as he knew his horse would get the trip , and my heart was in my mouth at the finish but for once it went my way.
Boga also came in and to be honest I thought this would go well today .
My best of the day was actually harbinger in the 4.35 but was trading to short for me early on around the 11-10 mark so I did not back it.
So I am well pleased and have recorded a profit on 4 out of 5 days now to end my baron spell.
I seem to be getting a few more hits and I hope someone out there has benefitted today
and made a few quid.
Be back later or tomorrow with thursdays selections if any. John

Early update

2009-05-06T03:53:00.000-07:00

Back earlier than I thought.
Examined my shortlist of other selections and theres a interest in the oaks prep
at chester 215 -Perfect truth 1 point win
The fav looks strong and beat perfect truth into 4th with the runner up that day winning a large maiden since the form of that race looks to hold the key to todays race.
She has to find something with the fav but she will appreciate this trip more and I think she has come on for today , The ground was very fast that day and can sometimes give misleading results .
Trained by the master I think 8-1 is value , its a pity there' s seven runners but I will also put in a 1/2 point e/w double with my other selection boga 2.35 bath

Recap
Boga 2.35 bath 2 points win @ 4-1
Perfect truth 215 chester 1 point win @ 8-1
1/2 point e/w double

Boga again

2009-05-06T00:35:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays selection had no kind of race with the favourite stumbling out of the gate then tearing off a breakneck speed , mine never got into things , was worried at the start when mine had a jockey change but could hardly moan when it was kirsty milczarek who rode my 16-1 winner on saturday.

Today i'm going for Boga - 235 bath 2 points win
I had this last week and it got outpaced early on but recovered to finish well
I think it will come on a lot for that run and should up a bold show in this class.
The fav has a chance on his best but is no value and is worth opposing.
The only bookie priced up is bet365 at 4-1 but I will wait for others to price before betting.

I may also be back for another selection later as there were a few on my shortlist and have not had time to check them all out , I will update around 2 pm 'ish.

Slow progress

2009-05-05T02:31:00.000-07:00

Yesterdays selection ran 2nd at 9-2 (took 6s). The finishing order was the same as the previous
race in which they all ran in, I thought mine would hold on but did not quite get there.
So a tiny profit of 0.2 point.

Tuesday - 2.10 chep - Torrens 1 point e/w

I've taken 5-1 best odds guaranteed on this , It looks a solid place and could stick its nose in front, The main reason for the bet is I dont like the favs in this race and think this is the best hope against them.

Its about value

2009-05-04T01:56:00.000-07:00

Very hard racing today and struggled to find anything at all
I've come up with one which is based mainly on its price.

245 new - Bronze beau 1 point e/w

This selection split the 1st and 2nd favs last time but had the worst draw of the three on that day and is 3 times the price at around 6-1 which is the price i've taken .
The ground could be a factor for all three and the price reflects good value in my opinion.

Weekly update

2009-05-03T10:41:00.000-07:00

Well a better end to the week for me and I got a bit back from the bookies.
Todays selection ran 2nd in the one thousand guineas at 12-1 and the fav was unplaced.
I was once again beaten by an outsider .
So a 1 point profit for today to follow yesterdays 9.6 points profit.
The earlier selections this week did not do as well and the loss on them was 14.5 points
given a total for the week of -3.9.
And a running total of -12.9.

Hopefully the blogs turned a corner and I will be looking to claw back some more this week and with a bit of luck get into profit.

Good luck john.

Thank you sir

2009-05-03T01:19:00.000-07:00

Well I starting to think this blog was putting the kybosh on my betting activities
but at last I have selected a decent price winner to get back some of my hard earned.
Sir isaac duly obliged for me yesterday at 16-1 .I took 14s in the morning but always place my bets with best odds bookies so I got the 16-1 and will record at this price.

On to today not much interest for me but I do have a fancy in the guineas and will have a small e/w on. I dont really like betting in these big races as they are far to competitive but as the
favourites really short I think theres e/w value to be had.

315 new - cuis gharie 1/2 point e/w at around 10-1

If you forgive her last run and take the view she will apprieciate the trip this looks quite solid e/w but the fav will take all the beating.

Better but still lost

2009-05-02T04:54:00.000-07:00

Things were a bit better yesterday but still not great
got one leg of the perm double up which is no good but the other leg was let down by a poor start from boga who then ran on quite well.
The other selection never met my hopefiul price of 14-1 and never got matched on betfair it actually become the subject of a bit of a gamble to 7-2 and narrowley got beaten. At least the selection performed well.

Todays selection SAT - Sir isaac 515 good - generally available at 14-1 1/2 point e/w

A word on time

2009-05-01T05:39:00.001-07:00

Just to let you know the time of the posts appear on usa time i think?
You can change the time before posting but i mostly forget.
the last post - double dutch was posted around 1.35 pm

Double dutch

2009-05-01T05:18:00.000-07:00

Still on a downward spiral at the moment with no evidence yet of being able to hit a barn door with a banjo.
Trying another one of more more speculative bets today and another single if the price is right.

Perm double

210 ling - boga and forget
230 south - sir haydn and crazy bold

1 point perm double total 4 points staked

A perm double is two selections in two races and consists of 4 bets you must get the winner of each race.

The single selection is

koo and the gang 340 southwell 1/2 point e/w if 14/1 or more

I will only record this as a bet if i can get 14s or bigger as i think it needs this price to justify its selection , i think it will be obtainable on betfair nearer the time.

Is this a laying blog?

2009-04-30T06:33:00.000-07:00

Well you might think it is with not a single return as yet but a little purple patch could put things right.
Today i'm a little late posting as i have been very busy the 1st selection is just half an hour
away.
3.05 red do the deal
80 yarm inchpast

2 points win each 1/2 point win double

try again again

2009-04-28T13:29:00.000-07:00

Well hopeless at the moment but still confident
wednesdays selections

405 pont summer lease
750 kemp mister trickster

1 point win each
1 point e/w double

Slh special

2009-04-27T14:20:00.000-07:00

Hi , things not going so well with another loser today . I admit I quickly discounted the winner
when I looked at the race and mainly based my selection on the fact that my selection
was good value at 7-2 to overturn the favourite, but the market made my selection favourite at a 11-8 ish and not the 7-2 as forecast in the post. He comfortably beat the posts forecast fav
but not the selling plater having the race of its life.
Anyway as I previously stated I am a subscriber to steve lewis hamiltons service and the
bets I have won most on are his eachway doubles these are generally favs or second favs
that when both placed usually cover the stake with a small profit and when both win
as they have done a good few times give you a lovely payday.
So hers my attempt at one of those doubles

Tuesday 27/04/09

230 ling cool art
450 ling tikka masala

1 point eachway double

Mondays chance

2009-04-26T13:09:00.000-07:00

2 points win Folly lodge in the 710 southwell.

Weekly update

2009-04-26T10:08:00.000-07:00

Well not a very encouraging start to my blog tipping site but thats the way it goes sometimes , its great when your winnin and hell when your losing.
hopefully I'll get a winner or two this week to get into profit.

Total on the week -9.00 points

Running total to date -9.00 points

we

try again

2009-04-25T16:06:00.000-07:00

Very dissapointed with yesterdays run and now standing at a loss of -6 points
but thats the way things go in this game.
Anyway sunday 210brighton I like safari camp 1.5 E/w hope this fairs better.
Good luck.

One for today

2009-04-24T13:35:00.000-07:00

sat 24 april

Couple of interests today but only one is a bet for me.

I toyed with alcade in the 3.05 leic but the jockey booking worries me in a four
runner race , so i'll just be watching.

The selection is LUTHEIN 850 WOLV - 1.5 E/W

This stands out for me and the swinburn stable is in great form , I think it will at least place
so with a forecast price of 9-2 I think its great value.
Good luck.

Nothing doing

2009-04-23T23:30:00.001-07:00

Could not find anything today , yesterdays selection ran 4th at 28-1 with the
winner proving a decent horse, I managed to find the best of the rest of the field
to take on the front 3 in the market but it never really challenged them.
Back tomorrow.

Running total -3 points

Taking a chance

2009-04-22T14:59:00.000-07:00

A tentative selection today

5.20 Southwell - Shannon golden 1/2 point e/w

A newcomer who could run well in a race with a poor top 3 in the betting .
Hopefully all 8 will start for the 3 places .

Nothing today

2009-04-21T23:54:00.000-07:00

No selection for today
Yesterdays selection lost - 2 point

Break a leg

2009-04-20T14:03:00.000-07:00

Well heres my first selection on this new blog

Tuesday at kempton 3.50

Planetry motion - 2 Pts win s.p

Welcome

2009-04-20T02:37:00.000-07:00

As an avid reader of JPs betting blog and some of the links on his blog
I thought I would share my bets for others to see and monitor.
There will probably be only a handful each week but I think can
generate a profit from them.
There wont be selections every day but when there are they will be
posted early or even the night before due to being self employed.
I am a subscriber to Steve lewis hamiltons service and recommend it
to anyone who is trying to win from racing.
Please only follow my advice if you can afford any losses
that may occur , I am not a professional punter just
someone with an interest in racing and an inkling that I can win.
Good luck john