Monday 29 June 2009

Monday

A small bet today

3.30 wolv - horsley warrior 1/2 point win

No prices as yet but 14.5 on betfair.
This horse ran a howler last time and there must have been something amiss.
If back to its previous form it would have a fair chance in this off a decent mark.

Sunday 28 June 2009

Weekly update 28-6

well heres the weekly update

Towinornottowin
-----------------
mon -2
thurs +4.5
fri -1
sat -2.24
sun -1

Total - 1.74
totaltodate +2.06

Toloseornottolose
------------------
tues +0.95
sat +0.95

Total on week +1.80
total to date +1.80

Well not a great week on the backing front with just the 1 winner and a place double.
The laying side had a great start with the two lays both failing to make the frame at ev and 5/2
They probably both lost because i'm not yet laying them, when I start just watch them win.

sunday

Just a small e/w double today

2.0 sal - fire and stone @ 6/1 ppower best odds
445 sal- souter point @ 3/1 ppower

1/2 e/w double

fire and stone has sound place claims with state fair taken out and 6/1 seems good value ,
there is an odds on shot who may be a bit too short at 4-5.
Souter point is the clear form horse on known form and should at least place.
The purpose of this bet is to try and land a nice touch while playing it fairly safe with the place double which would give us a small profit.

Saturday 27 June 2009

Saturday

Apologies first , I meant to post this morning saying I would update at noon but events at work
put me off and I forgot to post.

Been busy looking and have a few tips today

2.05 ancien regime 1 point win bet 365
6.50 pyrus time 2 points win

1/2 point e/w double
-----------------------------------------------------------
230 win - mr david 1 point lay at under 2-1

ancein regime is currently 3-1 @ bet365 12.39pm and only 9-4 with others inc ladbrokes
It last run at course distance and ground had him in front of diabolical nand a repeat of that would win this but there is a fitness worry.
pyrus time ticks all the boxes even though he still a maiden after so long but it looks a two horse race and I much prefer this one.

mr david is unraced but is currenlt around 7-4 for its debut , there are a couple who made decent debuts and should improve and I cant see why hes so short and hes worth laying at
under 2-1, i think he may start a bit bigger.

Thursday 25 June 2009

friday

Dont have price yet but a small bet on

pycian 4.0 doncaster - 1 point win

looks the call in this race , a decent debut winner and with improvement expected and also a more suitable trip today he can make it a winning double.

thursday 25.6

3.0 new -kaptain kirkup - 2 points win @5-2 bet365best odds

This looks a nice horse although a fairly competitive race 5-2 seems a decent price.

Wednesday 24 June 2009

Tuesday 19th

First lay selections today , has a fair chance but likely to be very poor value and plenty to oppose him

To lose
7.20 athwaab lay 1 point at around 6-4

Monday 22 June 2009

monday evening

6.20 chep - true red - 2points win @3-1 bet365

Monday

update at 5.00pm

Sunday 21 June 2009

Weekly update 21-06-09

Well a truly awful week in respect of returns but the racing was entertaining.
I have decided to review the way the selections are given out, reading noseaheads blog today
was like deja vu for me , I have been trying to hard to find winners when I should have been more selective.
When looking for decent bets I often start with looking for poor value favourites to oppose.
I have decided from now that if my selection is not the clear choice against these weak favourites
that I will either leave alone or advise a lay on the unfancied horse.
For example I put up two selections today where I thought the favourite was to short and they both got beat but I did not profit on the day.
So alongside towinornottowin there will be toloseornottolose, I will keep these seperate for account purposes.
Initially I will not be laying these as its more of a trial run at the moment the price I settle the lays on will be
successful lays less 5%commision
unsuccessful lays at 5% on the starting price to allow for the slightly better exchange odds.
Towinornottowinbets will be more selective and less speculative than before and focus on horses that I think have a good chance at a decent price.
The daily posts will be brief and on days when there are no selections there will be no posts.
If there are selections they will be posted by 11.30 unless stated on the blog.

back to this week
monday -1
tuesday -5
wednesday -4
thursday -1
friday -3.5
sat -3
sunday -1 (winning selection did not meet price required)

Total for week - 18.5 points ( oh gosh)
Total to date +3.8 points

sunday

Well i'm glad ascots over , the bank has taken a battering
today pontefract is the only card for me


Drumfire is a good bet to be beaten in the 3.40 today ,the breeding says he wont stay and the fact that hes not been tried at a mile and a half after so many races confirms it in my opinion, he has good form and may win in a tactical battle but hes not a 6-4 chance for me.
with a couple of the other fancies out it may be worth taking a chance with

Zaheen 1point win @10-1 betfred.

This probably has the best form in the race if you exclude his last two runs which i think you can.
last time he went over 10 furlongs which is too sharp for him and the previous time he ran he wore blinkers for the 1st time.
Obviously it has problems but 10-1 seems value as there are not many others in with a shout.

Another possible is shemoli in the 4.40 Tthe fav is way to short as others have chances . It may be a choker but the form is decent and if it reaches 5-1 it will be worth a point . it will only be recorded on that basis.

Saturday 20 June 2009

Ascot day 4

Having a dreadful week thus far some of my selections have put in decent performances and nothing to show for it.
Today I like (so you might be better laying them)

2.30 shakepearean 1 point win
345 kings apostle 1 point win
1/2 e/w double with above


4.25 prohibit and exclamation 1/2 point win each

shakespearean I like and I think he will be in the places today and hopefully win.
kings apostle is a decent sprinter and the refitting of the visor which helped him win before
can help him settle there are some good foreign horses again but surely we should win one sprint this week.
In the wokingham I have gone for one on each side of the draw they both have poor recent form
but if they ran as they can we may land a nice price.

I have not bet yet just but will get the best odds available at best odds.
the wokingham selections may be better on betfair.

Friday 19 June 2009

Ascot day 3

River captain ran a great race but ultimately got beat in a bunch finish.
I am happy with my selections so far but not getting that bit of luck at the moment.
Today i like

2.30 ascot-Above limits 1/2 point win @ 59/1 betfair
3.05 ascot -Debussy 1 point win @10-1 bet 365
2.10 redcar- Highcliffe breeze 2 points win 5/1 at the moment bet 365 but waiting for others to price up.

Above limits is a huge price to win what might be a more open race than the betting is making out , there are plenty with chances and I can see no reason why this is not around 14-1 for this race. The price is simply to big , I have gone for a win because the betfair price is 20 points above the best bookies price.

Debussy is another who is too big today , black bear island is a poor price and is worse of with debussy on the derby form and has to give him weight, the other runners seem a moderate bunch so i'm hopeful for a decent win here.
The best of the day goes in the seller at redcar and a big run is expected , just waiting on the prices but will record at price I take.

Wednesday 17 June 2009

handicapping

not a lot for me to go at as some short prices and a long distance race today which are not my cup of tea. monsueir chevalier looks to have a great chance but watch the yank if you betting big.
The last is a dante rematch and no value seems present.

so today I am trying one in the h/cap

4.20 rivercaptain 1 point win

obviously a very open race but this should run its race and at around 14-1 looks fair value.

cannot believe this

What is going on
for the second day running I have picked the best of the home crop for my best bet of the day
only to be beaten by an aussie and a yank.
Will have to avoid races with them in now because you just cant judge how good they are and how thre travelling is effecting them , ishould be sitting near 20 point up and i'm losing.
Also wonder if our jocks are up to the quality of the yanks.
rant over. john

Tuesday 16 June 2009

Ascot day 2

Yesterday left a bitter taste in the mouth , when weighing up the big sprint it was mainly on the basis of the known british and french and irish form , I figured that although the aussies have a good record it is still hard to win when you travel half the world.Not so it seems. I picked right and I am happy about that but dont you hate the aussies!
I still enjoyed the racing and canford cliff especially .
Today I like
3.05 evas request @ 8-1 bet365 1 point win
3.45 virtual @12-1 bet365 1 point win
4.55 misheer @ 10-1 bet 365 2 points win

These are against some strong horses today but are decent value as they all have sound chances,
hopefully the favs had their day yesterday.

Monday 15 June 2009

Ascot day 1

Well its here at last the best meeting of the year on the flat
I have spent a good while going through the non handicaps and have picked a selection
in each race , I treat this meeting as an indulgence and sometimes let my heart rule my head
so its up to you to make up your own mind.

3.05 Fleeting spirit -3 points win
3.45 evasive -1 point win
4.20 canford hills ( to short to bet just enjoy)
5.30 desert auction - 1 point win

The main bet is fleeting spirit and its the 1st 3 pointer I have given , it has a tremendous chance if it has retained its ability.
Evasive ran well 1st time up in the guineas and could well improve to give the favourite ,who is to short for me a serious run for its money.
Desert auction who I opposed last time had no kind of race and at the odds available it could represent decent value.
I have not put up prices yet as it is best to see the offers tomorrow , the bet3635 4/1 offer for tv races is tempting if their prices are in line with the best on offer.
I'll post my returns at the prices I take this will have to be taken on trust.john

Monday

Just a small e/w stab in the dark tonight.
The 7.0 at windor is a strange race with a 4-7 favourite in footstepsofspring this is only 4-7 due
to the fact that its trained by r.hannon who is in superb form at the moment this horse looks like a horse who doesent like putting its head in front it is easily the form horse but sometimes
its worth opposing these sorts and because its 4-7 its pushing the other horses out in the betting.
There are 3 places and the fav will occupy one of them so there are 2 place or even a win chance to be found with the rest of the field.
Out of unraced you could pick almuntaser and glass of red .
And of the raced horses split the pot comes into it.
On its debut it got hampered and did not handle the track but it was there for most of the race it finished 6th in the race the 4th won next time out and the winner is a decent horse, that was 6f and today its 5f.
If it gets a better run today the 50-1 on offer could look ridiculous.So its on this basis that its my selection .
It could easily run last as well as 1st but is worth this small investment.

7.0 windsor - split the pot - 50-1 stan james 1/2 point e/w

Weekly update 15-06-09

A bit late but heres how the week went

mon -1
tue 0
wed -2
thur -2
fri 0
sat +5.8
sun -1

Total for the week -0.2 point

Total to date +21.58

A bit dissapointed not to be recording a profit but the r4 was bigger than expected on the 12-1
winner other dissapointments were not getting my second leg of a double to place at least and not doing an e/w on cryalot boy who went of 14-1 which is now my minimum e/w price.
Thats the way it goes you take the highs with the lows.

The lowest point for me in the week was getting home late on friday and phoning slh for his selections just as the 1st leg was running so i missed out on a win and a win double given by him.
I consoled myself a bit by backing his 2nd selection as a win bet but it cost me dear on the night.
Royal ascot to look forward to this week and I will spend a bit longer each evening trying to sort out a couple of winners. john

maybe later

Bit busy for update and selections in the daytime today so will post sometime around 5.00ish

Sunday 14 June 2009

Sunday

Yesterdays selections gave a loser and a welcome winner at 12-1 sadly though my 12-1 was subject to a whopping 35p r4.
The withdrawn horse must have been shorter on bet365 in the morning.
The race worked out perfect for me as I had it between the 1st two and only picked the winner due to the price. Funnily enough though they both went of at the 6-1 forecast in the post so it was the bookies who picked it for me with their wayward early price.
Today theres a small interest in

3.05 salis - Good for her - 1 point win @ 15-2 stan james

I think this has a fair chance today and am happy with the price given that its best odds,
but I would'nt want to take to much shorter on it as theres lots of chances in the race.

Saturday 13 June 2009

Saturday

Yestersdays selection was withdrawn at the start as it would not go in.
The stall handlers were poor in my opinion but no loss incurred.
Today i like

4.35 classically - 1 point win @13-2 bet365
455 mutawarath - 1 point win @ 12-1 bet365
.
1/2 point e/wdouble

Classically ran near last , last time out but that was a very competitive race for a load of money
and nowback down to earth could prove big at 13-2 without needing to improve much.
The 4.55 I have to be honest and admit I spent ages trying to split mutawarath and french applause and was not going to bet , but when the prices came in the difference of 11-2 and 12-1
made up my mind.
I would have thought about 6-1 each like the post forecast says so its huge value at 12-1 ,it ran into trouble last time and should give a run for your money.

Friday 12 June 2009

evening update

sorry its quite late
Tonights selection is

8.0 good leceile 2 points win @4-1 w-hill (bog)

This should put in a bold performance tonight.

Thursday 11 June 2009

fri night

Todays selections provided a nr and 2 losers , cryalotboy ran a great race at 14-1 to finish 2nd
but the odds on jolly was too good.
Will post between 5-7 tomorrow as I may have a later interest.

Wednesday 10 June 2009

Interesting day

Todays 1st selection won very well at a decent sp seeing as his main rival was a nr
the 2nd was having problems at the start and finished 4th.
I think I shall be careful when backing blinkered horses in future , they wear them to stop them getting edgy and focus on the race which means they are probably not trustworthy unless they are serial blinker wearers and have done well with them.

Thursday has quite a few interesting runners , I like

1.35 diamond johnny - f/c @ 10-1
3.50 chanrossa - f/c @ 7-1
9.20 cryalotboy - f/c @ 12-1

all 1 point win singles

diamond johnny ran well on his debut and should improve again , the favourte is strong and there are some decent looking newcomers but 10-1 would surely be a value bet.
Chanrossa is capable of winning and may get his chance today.
Cryalotboy is capable of much better than his recent efforts and if finding some form
12-1 would be very big.

I have not put up multiple bets today as theres a lot of ifs and buts but I may do a very small
trixie just in case but I wont include for blog purposes. Once again it will have to be sp as i;m of early in the morning.john

E/W DOUBLE

A little e/w double for today

2.40 jeanie johnston forecast 7/2
6.50 i'malwayalright forecast 2/1

1 point e/w double

Both seem to have a good chance and the place part of the double would cover stake , best to use best odds bookies when they have priced up.
I'm working so will have to use s.p today.

Monday 8 June 2009

Nothing doing

Yesterdays selection did not do very well so a 1 point loss on the day.
Today there really is nothing interest.
See you tomorrow

Evening update

Just a small interest for this evening

6.30 wind - Jessica haylar 1/2 point e/w @ 14-1 stan james

this is just speculative but its very nicely bred with a good trainer jockey combo
14-1 seems good e/w value in a race with some that dont look as well bred.

Sunday 7 June 2009

Monday evening maybe!

Nothing in the day for monday but there are a couple of interesting runners at windor in the evening .
I will update after 5.00 monday. john

Weekly update 07-06-09

Not much for the update, I will include the 2 point loss from the 26th may.
Todays selections were poor but thats the way it goes sometimes.
I did make another last minute bet on talimos in the 4.0 brighton as I thought the favourite looked way to short to trust , I figured an e/w bet was a fairly safe option as only talimos and the fav had the form.Talimos won by 10 lengths at 5-1 because something went amis with the fav.
I did not have time to put it on the blog and I will not be recording it in my figures.
Sometimes I do make later decisions to bet because things change during the day, talimos who I thought would go off at 3-1 was 5-1 at the start and I thought it was then value.
It would be unfair and too hard to post with minutes to spare.

26 may -2 points
Sat -0.5 point
sunday - 2 points

Total since last update -4.5 points
Total to date +21.78 points

sunday

Yesterday's selections both finished 2nd and thanks to the bookies giving 1/4 odss a place at the big meeting the day only ended with a 1/2 point loss.
Walking on the moon looked to have won the race only for colonol maddox to finish like a train and take the spoils.
My derby thoughts were nearly spot on with fame and glory running as I expected it was just that he seems to have met a superstar in sea the stars who I doubted would have stayed.
It never came to staying as he was in a different league to these and would have won if it were 2 miles.
Today is poor but I am having a win double on

210south - regardless 11/10
310 south - aureate 10/11

2points win double with best odds bookies

The prices are short but at around 3-1 for the double I think its worth the bet as they both
have outstanding chances in thier respective races.
Be back lated with an update.

Saturday 6 June 2009

Walk on the moon and ignore the stars

Back from my holiday now and refreshed for action.
Sorry I put up true loves kiss late before I went , I did not see the race and it finished 4th but was then thrown out for not weighing in , it ran a similar race to its debut and I will be keeping an eye on this horse it has a win in it.
Derby day today and a very strange race it may be , with apo brien saddling half of the field
I think it would be plain stupid to back any other runner. All his jocks will have their instructions murtagh on rip van winkle is a red herring in my opinion and his outsiders will ensure a good pace , I think this will set up the race for fame and glory who will outstay the lot of them and take the prize.
The other horse for today is walkingonthemoon in the 1.55 I think this is great value at 10-1
and should be there abouts.

1.55 epsom - walking on the moon ...10-1 bet365 - 1 point win

3.45 epsom- fame and glory............... 4-1 bet 365 - 2 points win

1/2 point e/w double , total investment 4 points