Tuesday 26 May 2009

True loves kiss

Hi , I was not going to give anything this week as I am on holiday from tomorrow but I noticed a horse running that I highlighted as one tp back next time out.

2.10R - true loves kiss 2 points win @ around 8-1

This horse took a long time to get into things on its debut but when it did it really made up ground and was then eased , I'm sure it would have won that day had it not been for its inexperience , the race was only moderate but I think it will improve today and should be thereabouts.
From now on I am going to play mainly win only on singles unless there 14-1 or bigger, to try
and keep stakes down. I'll keep the e/w doubles.
Sorry if you miss this because I said I would not post. john.

Sunday 24 May 2009

Weekly update 24th May

Not a good week for me and it ends today with a badly hurt wrist ,may have to go to a and e to get it checked out.
Hard to type with one hand so i'll be brief , a loss of
-11.80points this week
Running total +25.78

nothing for monday so i think i will leave it for the next two weeks as i am on holiday for 10 days from wednesday and i'll resume the blog for derby day . good luck john

summers day

Yesterdays double turned out to be a single as lesson in humility was a nr. So a profit of 2.2 point on the day.
Today I like
3.30 new - Takaatuf @ 4-1
4.40 - summer target @ sp 1 point win each. 1/2 point e/w double

No prices yet for summers target but its showing at 6-1 on betfair at the moment 9.30am.
summers target has decent form at 7f on the turf , he came last on on his previous start but that was at 6f on the aw. I will excuse that and hope that his new trainer has him fit. 6-1 looks decent.
Takaatuf looks a nice horse and is well handicapped, I think he'll go well today.
Only 7 runners for takaatuf race but I think the e/w double chance is very good.

Friday 22 May 2009

win double

todays selection ran 4th beaten a long way .
Not a great week thus far and saturdays racing looks to offer little in the way of value.
I have selected a win double for saturday
2.35h - lesson in humilty
4.0 n- step in time 2 point win double

Lesson in humility has everything going for it today and will attract plenty of support so be wary of taking too short a price.
Step in time made my shortlist from its previous race and should be to the fore.

Fridays selections

Yesterdays selection driftred severly in the betting to 20-1 which indicated something amis.
It gave us a run even though it eventually came nearer last than 1st.

I think todays selection has as good a chance as the favourite who is around 7/4 ish.
The trip looks to suit and if fit she should put up a goood show.

2.45 newc - Kaloni 2 points win @ around 6-1

Wednesday 20 May 2009

shocking day

Todays selections ran like cart horse's , I cant remember backing two such fancied horses
and not getting at least a place for ages.
So a poor start to the week i'll count my ante post derby bet as a loser now.
I am going on holiday early next week so wont have to much time for betting as I have to get business affairs sorted.
I will just be posting my selections the previous evening and will have to take the s.p for them

Thursday 5.10 good - phoenix enforcer 1 point e/w

If this starts at the forecast 10-1 i think we will be getting decent value , fair form and
distance should suit. john

Derby hopeful

The last two days have been losing days , the selections ran ok but were all big odds.
So a 2 point loss on the week so far.
Today I am going for

2.0 ling talimos @2-1
3.25 good - chock a block @3-1

2 points win each and 1/2 point win double (both bet 365)

The 3.25 is a good race but I am think chock a block might be a decent horse and is entered in
the derby therefore I have also had

chock a block derby 1/2 point win @1201-1 betfair (best with bookies is 50-1)

Its obviously a stab in the dark but a good performance today would see him come into the reckoning for the classic and I would be annoyed if I did not have a small punt and then saw him coming into say 16-1 for epsom.
Talimos looks promising in the 2.0 and I think he will have the measure of akmal who is also 2-1.

Monday 18 May 2009

Tuesday 19th

Nothing much doing for tuesday there is a newcomer I may bet on

2.20m Commance raider 1/2 point win if available @ 10-1 of better
It looks interesting and could put a decent performance 1st time but I would want that price so will only bet and record if thats available.
I will be watching the 6.10l with interest but unlikely to bet, I watched state fair on its debut
it bolted at the start got into all sorts of trouble and still managed 5th without being pressed to hard it would have been a bet for me but tawaabb looks like a decent sort and Iwould not oppose.

Monday evening update

I have picked two outsiders for tonight they are both in weak races and have better chances than the odds quoted for them and its this reason that i'm betting.

7.10 wind - castano @16-1 bet365
7.40 wolv - Sermons mount 33-1 stan james

1/2 point win each 1/4 point e/w double (castano 14-1 stan james for the double)
Total investment 1.5 points

Its highly speculative but they say you have to speculate to accumulate.

Sunday 17 May 2009

Monday evening maybe!

Mondays racing looks s***** to be blunt but have a couple of outsiders on my shortlist
will wait for prices and going reports before deciding.
Will update again after 5.00pm. john

Weekly update 17th May

Well a good weekend makes it a profitable week.
It has been a bit frustrating at times as I think I picked well but was just missing out.
Mon.... (5.00)
Tues....(1.50)
Wed....(3.00)
Thur....+2.50
Fri....(.50)
Sat(1.00)
Sun....+18.86

Total profit for week........ .....+10.36

Total profit to date
Since 20th april 2009 ...........+37.58

So its been just about a month since I started this blog and I am very pleased to be sitting at a profit of 37.58 points, but its the long term view which is most important.
I have set myself the goal that all the so called professional tipsters seem to go by which is 100 points profit per year and I am well on my way to it but remember long losing runs happen.
If you look at the premium betting site blueskyracing they set their goal at 100 points a year and for two years they acheived this , but there nearly at their year end and are sitting on 3 points profit for the year! They only charge 2 grand a year!

"2 out of 3 aint bad."

I dont know who said that but I made a nice profit today with the selections given.
I am slightly dissapointed because I thought that mary helen was going to get up but faded in to forth.
I thought all three would improve and they all did.
Added to a nice win yesterday from slh it makes it a very good weekend for me.
Will be back later with the weekly update

Improvers?

Going for three selections today who have each had only one race but looking at the races I think each of them will improve enough to have good chances today.
Will be putting singles on each but will also play a small e/w multibet as I think all should be in contention.

Ripon
2.10 - Kylladdie 2 points win @ 7/2 stan james
2.40 - Mary helen 1 point win @ 9/1 stan james
4.40 - Lady luachmhar 2 points win @ 7/2 paddy power

3 x 1/2 point e/w doubles
1/4 point e/w treble

Total investment 8.5 points
( for the purpose of the multi bet lady lauchmhar is 3-1 as bet placed with stan james)

Busy day

There are a few interesting selections for me today and I am waiting for more books to price up.
Yesterdays selection lost but according to the posts write up was booked for 3rd place when it broke down and then had to be put down.So a loss for all.
Just a small thankyou to steve lewis hamilton who supplied me with a 20-1 winner yesterday
to give me a lovely boost to my spending for my forthcoming holiday, any one who wants serious professional advice should join this guy it is not cheap but then again neither is a rolls royce.
Beback around 11.00 am

Saturday 16 May 2009

Not quite clicking

Things are a bit frustrating at the moment with a couple of seconds ruining my doubles.
No excuses as the winners were deserving but just a modicum of luck would be handy.
Yesterday a winner and a second for a 1/2 point loss on the day , managed 5/4 on the winner but hoped it would return bigger.
Not much for me todays just a small e.w.

2.05 newbury tropical strait 1/2 point e/w at 10-1 Bet365

If ready first time out it should put in a good performance.
Seems to be drifting a little at the moment so best done on best odds guarantee
12s is available though .

Thursday 14 May 2009

Fridays selections

Todays selection ran a creditable 3rd @16-1 and beat the so called talking horses , I wondered what ladbrokes knew to offer such a generous price of 14-1 and I now know the answer..............
A. p. o' brien was running 2 in the race.
I dont know what he feeds them but the other trainers should get a supply of it.
I took 14-1 without best odds and will record at this price and I was pleased to see ladbrokes giving a 1/4 odds on the race. So a profit of 2.5 on the day.

Off early again tomorrow so heres the fridays selections

1.50 new - Mijas player 2 points win each
6.20 ham - Corporal maddox 1 point win double

Only betfair to go on at the moment mijas player trading around 3-1 and corporal maddox at 6-5
(I would not want less than 6-5 corporal maddox)I will record at price's I take at around noon tomorrow.
These both look to have solid claims against newcomers . John.

Wednesday 13 May 2009

14-1 Value

Todays selections lost with dettori out for a walk in the park , holding up the horse and then was left with to much to do so he just coasted home. It finshed 6th which was flattering it was just running past beaten horses, Watch this next time out.This was not frankie at his best.
the second selection got outpaced early and had nothing to offer.
Posting now for thursday as I wont be around and the bet is

240york - Sans frontiers 1 point e/w @14-1 ladbrokes

This is surely to big at 14-1 , it has great form 2nd behind delegator on its reappearance will be suited by the trip and running against a field of talking horses which on close inspection have little form. Great price at 14-1 my only concern is that its the magic sign putting up the best price , what is it they know?

Early update wednesday

Popped home for a break and checked out my selection for this evening on oddschecker.
Its starting do move in the market so I have placed my bet now just posting now
while one bookie has the original price.

7.10 bath - You've been mowed 1 point e/w @11-1 stan james

it was generally 10-1 and 12-1 earlier and is now as low as 8-1.
Stan james seem to be given good odds lately and may take over from my preferred bookie bet365 as they also offer best odds guaranteed.
The horse should go well in a claimer and put in on a low weight I would be disapointed if it
does not give a decent run and place at least.

Tuesday 12 May 2009

Small investment

Last nights bet returned 3.5 for a 5 stake so a loss on the bet of 1.5 .
My selections run well enough but were not the match the odds on selection in the 1st leg.

Off early in the morning so will post a small bet for the daytime now and maybe another for the evening after 5pm.
The 3.10 at york is highly competitive and you would need a screw loose to place a large bet in the race in my opinion.
If they run this race a dozen times there could be a dozen different winners and I believe that
Hatta fort could be one of those winners , therefore I think its odds of 20-1 are value on that basis.

3.10York Hatta fort 1/2 point e/w

Evening update

Todays selection had a problem at the stalls and was withdrawn.
Tonight i'm going for

6.20 ling Bennelong @6-1
Zulu moon @ 14-1

8.20 ling Dark ranger @ 5-2
Primo dilettante @ 4-1

1 point win each 1/4 point perm double Total stake 5 points

Playing these different tonight trying a bit of dutching (backing 2 in a race)

One winner could give a profit and the double would be nice .
All prices quoted are with stan james at the moment.

Good luck john.

poppet to pop-in?

Yesterday selections did not prevail with bond together getting troubled and then losing its whip, It took a walk in the market and probably would not have won anyway.
Gap princess got beat a neck but put up a game performance.

Today I have more interest in the evening cards than the daytime, and will post again after 5.00pm with the selections , i'm waiting to see how betting goes.
But I do have a small interest in the 2.30 at at beverley

Poppet's lovein 1/2 point e/w 2.30 bev @14-1

With an odds on fav who is pushing out the prices of the others 14-1 seems good value, for a nicely bred newcomer who could run a place or even stick its nose in front.

Monday 11 May 2009

Jockeys Day

I am going for 2 selections today mainly because they have useful claimers onboard who may just give them the edge.

240 wol - Bond together generally 5-1
350 red - Gap princess 15-8

2 points win each 1 win double

Bond together looks sure to go well , evans has 2 in this race and his son is on the one I think he fancies most, in recent races when he has had 2 in the race his son seems to come out on top.
I did want this 2 points e/w but a nr has reduced the field to 7.
Gap princess returned to seven furlongs on sat and died out pretty quickly but with the claim and a more tactical race I think he is worth the investment.

Sunday 10 May 2009

Weekly update 10th May

Well its been a much better performance this week to follow a good ending to last week.
The selections given on this blog are now showing a very healthy profit and I hope to continue
this momentum in the future.
Monday a small profit of .2 points.
Tuesday a loss of (2) points.
Wednesday profits of 8 , 9 and 26.92 on the e/wdouble given a total of 43.92 points.
Thursday a loss of (1) point.
Fridays selection did not achieve the stated price so no bet.
Saturday a loss of (1) point.
Sunday no selection.

Total profit for week +40.12 points

Running total to date + 27.22

Quiet day

No selection for today as theres no english flat racing.
Yesterdays selection ran below expectation and is probably not a great filly.
I'll be back later with the weekly update. John.

Saturday 9 May 2009

Typos

I have been looking back at my posts and have noticed a lot of bad english and spelling mistakes.
I type them out very quickly and do not proof read before posting .
I will try to improve them from now on . John

Worth opposing

Yesterdays selection was not a selection as it failed to get anywhere near the price I set myself
for it. It lost at odds on which was far to short and might have been a lay at that price but
laying is not for me.

Today is another difficult day and I am going to have my sole bet on an unraced 3yo.

Penlova - 725 warwick 1 point win @ 10-1 bet 365

The market leaders have not shown much form to date and penlova is very nicely bred
and would not have to be great to win this.
Obviously i'm taking a chance with the horse having no experience but 10-1 is a very good
price in such a poor race.
As there are only seven runners i'm putting a win bet on because if it runs well it will probably win and if it is unfit or green it will probably come nowhere.

Friday 8 May 2009

The price is right

Yesterdays selection lost but did not run taht badly considering it had been off so long.
Someone sarted putting on the money as its odds tumbled from 20 -1 down to 9-1, I'm sure it was'nt my bet that did it.

Today I like

ROCK OF LOVE 610H 2 points win if the price is right , the post says it will start at 11-4
but betfair is a fair bit shorter at the moment . The right price is key when betting and sometimes its better to pass than take a short price. I would be wanting 9-4 + and will only be
betting and recording as a bet if I can obtain this price.
Good luck

Thursday 7 May 2009

A lot of ifs

Sorry so late , been working hard

Masterofthe house was beaten as I feared I checked ot nearly every horse against it apart from the winner as it was obriens 2nd string. Glad I did not bet I hate it when the big price 2nd string wins only the stable can predict them.
I have the outsideer of the field in the 8.10 windsor tonight , been of the track a long time
but would not need its best form to win such a poor handicap, as I say its only a longshot but
20-1 seems to big

810 Winsdor - Annambo 20-1 1/2 point e/w

Wednesday 6 May 2009

The late show

Struggling to find anything for thursday
Spent a good while trying to find something against masterofthehouse in the chester vase as I think it may get overturned , I looked at all others from different angles and I simply could not
justify any of them , so its best watched.
Have an idea of one selection in the evening and will update after 6pm on it.
John

Truly perfect

What a great day today .
I had two bets which both won given me a profit of over 43 points on the day and putting the blog into profit for the first time.
J.murtagh rode a superb race on perfect truth making sure it was a true test of stamina as he knew his horse would get the trip , and my heart was in my mouth at the finish but for once it went my way.
Boga also came in and to be honest I thought this would go well today .
My best of the day was actually harbinger in the 4.35 but was trading to short for me early on around the 11-10 mark so I did not back it.
So I am well pleased and have recorded a profit on 4 out of 5 days now to end my baron spell.
I seem to be getting a few more hits and I hope someone out there has benefitted today
and made a few quid.
Be back later or tomorrow with thursdays selections if any. John

Early update

Back earlier than I thought.
Examined my shortlist of other selections and theres a interest in the oaks prep
at chester 215 -Perfect truth 1 point win
The fav looks strong and beat perfect truth into 4th with the runner up that day winning a large maiden since the form of that race looks to hold the key to todays race.
She has to find something with the fav but she will appreciate this trip more and I think she has come on for today , The ground was very fast that day and can sometimes give misleading results .
Trained by the master I think 8-1 is value , its a pity there' s seven runners but I will also put in a 1/2 point e/w double with my other selection boga 2.35 bath

Recap
Boga 2.35 bath 2 points win @ 4-1
Perfect truth 215 chester 1 point win @ 8-1
1/2 point e/w double

Boga again

Yesterdays selection had no kind of race with the favourite stumbling out of the gate then tearing off a breakneck speed , mine never got into things , was worried at the start when mine had a jockey change but could hardly moan when it was kirsty milczarek who rode my 16-1 winner on saturday.

Today i'm going for Boga - 235 bath 2 points win
I had this last week and it got outpaced early on but recovered to finish well
I think it will come on a lot for that run and should up a bold show in this class.
The fav has a chance on his best but is no value and is worth opposing.
The only bookie priced up is bet365 at 4-1 but I will wait for others to price before betting.

I may also be back for another selection later as there were a few on my shortlist and have not had time to check them all out , I will update around 2 pm 'ish.

Tuesday 5 May 2009

Slow progress

Yesterdays selection ran 2nd at 9-2 (took 6s). The finishing order was the same as the previous
race in which they all ran in, I thought mine would hold on but did not quite get there.
So a tiny profit of 0.2 point.

Tuesday - 2.10 chep - Torrens 1 point e/w

I've taken 5-1 best odds guaranteed on this , It looks a solid place and could stick its nose in front, The main reason for the bet is I dont like the favs in this race and think this is the best hope against them.

Monday 4 May 2009

Its about value

Very hard racing today and struggled to find anything at all
I've come up with one which is based mainly on its price.

245 new - Bronze beau 1 point e/w

This selection split the 1st and 2nd favs last time but had the worst draw of the three on that day and is 3 times the price at around 6-1 which is the price i've taken .
The ground could be a factor for all three and the price reflects good value in my opinion.

Sunday 3 May 2009

Weekly update

Well a better end to the week for me and I got a bit back from the bookies.
Todays selection ran 2nd in the one thousand guineas at 12-1 and the fav was unplaced.
I was once again beaten by an outsider .
So a 1 point profit for today to follow yesterdays 9.6 points profit.
The earlier selections this week did not do as well and the loss on them was 14.5 points
given a total for the week of -3.9.
And a running total of -12.9.

Hopefully the blogs turned a corner and I will be looking to claw back some more this week and with a bit of luck get into profit.

Good luck john.

Thank you sir

Well I starting to think this blog was putting the kybosh on my betting activities
but at last I have selected a decent price winner to get back some of my hard earned.
Sir isaac duly obliged for me yesterday at 16-1 .I took 14s in the morning but always place my bets with best odds bookies so I got the 16-1 and will record at this price.

On to today not much interest for me but I do have a fancy in the guineas and will have a small e/w on. I dont really like betting in these big races as they are far to competitive but as the
favourites really short I think theres e/w value to be had.

315 new - cuis gharie 1/2 point e/w at around 10-1

If you forgive her last run and take the view she will apprieciate the trip this looks quite solid e/w but the fav will take all the beating.

Saturday 2 May 2009

Better but still lost

Things were a bit better yesterday but still not great
got one leg of the perm double up which is no good but the other leg was let down by a poor start from boga who then ran on quite well.
The other selection never met my hopefiul price of 14-1 and never got matched on betfair it actually become the subject of a bit of a gamble to 7-2 and narrowley got beaten. At least the selection performed well.

Todays selection SAT - Sir isaac 515 good - generally available at 14-1 1/2 point e/w

Friday 1 May 2009

A word on time

Just to let you know the time of the posts appear on usa time i think?
You can change the time before posting but i mostly forget.
the last post - double dutch was posted around 1.35 pm

Double dutch

Still on a downward spiral at the moment with no evidence yet of being able to hit a barn door with a banjo.
Trying another one of more more speculative bets today and another single if the price is right.

Perm double

210 ling - boga and forget
230 south - sir haydn and crazy bold

1 point perm double total 4 points staked

A perm double is two selections in two races and consists of 4 bets you must get the winner of each race.

The single selection is

koo and the gang 340 southwell 1/2 point e/w if 14/1 or more

I will only record this as a bet if i can get 14s or bigger as i think it needs this price to justify its selection , i think it will be obtainable on betfair nearer the time.